Ukrainian Conflict as told by Reddit
I have been deeply fascinated by the Ukranian conflict and I am following it closely in the bowels of the internet. You can find an excellent collection of stories videos on r/UkrainianConflict showing the progress of the war. Based on everything I’ve seen, here’s what I think is happening in Ukraine today:
Ukraine is winning because the Russians are poorly supplied and poorly motivated. There is significant evidence that the bulk of the Russian army has been told that it is on a training exercise; I’ve seen numerous videos showing captured Russian soldiers saying as much. Meanwhile, the Ukranians are highly motivated and there is a war fervor among the civilian population.
The Russians seem poorly supplied. There is a video of Russian tanks sitting on the side of the road, and a Ukranian civilian drives by the soldiers there who say that they are out of gas. The Ukranian offers to give them a tow back to Russia and everyone laughs. The Russian soldiers ask who is winning the fight, and they also ask where the road leads. They are clueless. No gas, no intel.
I’ve seen discussions that the Russians don’t have a lot of ordnance—rockets and missiles specifically. They don’t have night vision and can’t operate at night. Russians have been seen looting supermarkets for supplies.
The Ukranians meanwhile have access to advanced anti-tank weapons provided by the US and Europe—weapons that were designed specifically to kill Russian tanks. The Ukranians are controlling the areas along the roads that approach their cities and launching effective ambushes on clueless Russian armor columns. The Russians seem to be trying this sort of Blitzkrieg strategy of advancing the armor without trying to control the area flanking the roadways. That strategy would work against a poorly-armed Ukranian army, but it is suicide against an army equipped with modern anti-tank weaponry. To effectively use armor in this kind of situation, the tanks need infantry support. That all takes time.
And the Russians are running out of time. They are fighting a 1982 war in 2022. The Ukrainians are clearly winning the PR battle. Zelensky is a true hero to his country. The world is largely united in fucking Russian economic interests, and more and more advanced weapons systems are being sent to Ukraine by the West. These sanctions are going to start hitting the Russians hard next week, and Putin will have nothing to show for it.
There are reports that Russians are abandoning equipment in Ukraine. You can see video of the abandoned equipment on Reddit. There are other reports that some Russian military units are refusing to mobilize—they are in mutiny, essentially. Putin is basically in trouble.
And today he ordered that his nuclear forces mobilize. That’s some frightening shit. I think it’s mostly bluster. But I’m starting to think that Putin has maybe lost his marbles. Marco Rubio tweeted something cryptic this weekend to that effect, suggesting that he had access to non-public information.
The West may not have boots on the ground, but we may not need them if things keep going as they are going. We can provide Ukraine with satellite imagery, satellite communications, and all the Intel the Ukrainians need to keep this Blitzkrieg strategy at bay. Today the Ukrainians destroyed an armored convoy of Chechyans with artillery. This isn’t the type of thing that happen by accident. The West is clearly helping the Ukrainians find the enemy. And so Putin is pissed. Furious, reportedly, at the lack of progress.
So hold on to your butts.